Dedicated to the citizens of Mason County, Washington since 1886
Dedicated to the citizens of Mason County, Washington since 1886
Wildland firefighters work on the 2018 Maple Fire in northwestern Mason County.
People in Mason County can be cautiously optimistic about this year's wildfire and fire season, according to the state Department of Natural Resources.
"Fires on the west side, especially really bad fires on the west side, are not a very common thing," Wildland Fire Meteorologist Matthew Dehr told the Journal. "You really have to have a lot of factors line up for a prolonged period of time. Last summer was one of those times where it was hot and dry for a long enough time that people were concerned. This summer, I don't see that happening."
April and May this year were both in the top 10 coldest and wettest months recorded since the early 1900s, according to Dehr.
"We're much wetter going into this fire season compared to last season," Dehr said. "So currently, there is no drought declarations anywhere west of the Cascades in Washington. There are still considerable areas of concern east of the Cascades, but west of the Cascades, we've completely eliminated the drought."
Dehr also said DNR is looking at the fuel load. Timber is the main fuel west of the Cascades and is considered a 1,000-hour fuel, which means it takes about 1,000 hours for those fuels to react to the environment.
"As we go into the season, everything is super wet, super moist, the threat of wildfire as it stands right now is basically nil on the west side," Dehr said. "As we work into July and August, I do expect things to dry out a bit, I do expect things to warm up a bit. On the west side, we will likely stay near normal temperatures through August, which is a good sign, especially after last year's historic heat wave."
Western Washington is feeling the effects of La Nina, a pattern of ocean temperature and wind anomalies across the Pacific Ocean that affect weather conditions around the world and is associated with cooler and wetter weather patterns in the Northwest. April and May were the strongest months of La Nina since 1999. The years Dehr is comparing to 2022 to reference for how strong La Nina is this year is 1955, 1971, 1975 and 1999.
"The challenge is trying to sort out when this moisture is going to end," Dehr said. "(We're) kind of trying to pinpoint that transition to summer, which I do think will occur at some point in the middle and end of June, that's the main challenge right now. But since we have such wet conditions on the west side and since our fuels are so big and dense over here, they're not the grassy type fuels, we do have quite a bit of a buffer built up before we actually start seeing fire danger."
Dehr said it'll take a long time for fire danger to develop in Mason County. He said he can see people getting complacent and having campfires or debris burns that aren't attended to that might get out of control.
Even with wetter conditions, Dehr said he hopes people will respect the fire risk. He said DNR had a record low number of wildfire calls in April across the state.
Climate change has influenced fire season and wildfires. Dehr said when looking at previous years for indications of potential fire danger, it must be adjusted one to two degrees upward for climate change.
While Western Washington appears to be in for a milder wildfire season, Eastern Oregon and Northern California are expecting above-average wildfire potential beginning this month and continuing through August, which means some smoky summer days might be ahead.
"Whenever those fires get going, there's always a possibility the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascades and Seattle, Mason County, the Olympic Peninsula, do get smoked out," Dehr said. "Just because we're going to have, fingers crossed, a below average fire season, especially on the west side, I do think that smoke is still going to be in the air this summer and it really just depends on how the weather system set up to trap it. In order to get the real smoky days that are hazardous to people's health, you've got to have a big high pressure system that sets up and traps it in one area. ... It is definitely something I am concerned about going forward for this summer."
The DNR is preparing early for July 4. Dehr said all aircraft will be stationed at bases by Wednesday and crews will be ready to respond to wildfires in advance of fireworks season. He said with the below-average fire season expected, he said to expect later-than-normal burn bans.
To learn about the latest burn restrictions, go to dnr.wa.gov/programs-and-services/wildfire-resources.
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